The current weather patterns in India, particularly the lack of winter rainfall and high temperatures, pose significant risks for Rabi crops, which are crucial for the country’s agricultural production.

The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has highlighted that the weather conditions from December 2024 to February 2025 will not be favorable for these crops, as many regions in India are expected to experience below-average rainfall.

Rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram, lentils, and barley, are typically grown in the northern and northwestern parts of India, which are major contributors to the country's agricultural output. However, these areas are forecast to receive less rainfall than usual, which may hinder crop development.

Furthermore, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-average temperatures during the winter months, and the cold wave expected to be milder and shorter than usual could also be problematic. These conditions are not ideal for Rabi crops, which thrive in cool, moist conditions, especially in February and March.

In addition, the Indian Ocean dipole, which has the potential to influence rainfall patterns, is expected to become neutral by the end of December, further reducing the chances of rainfall in India.

The season for the northeast monsoon, which usually affects the eastern and northeastern parts of the country, will also be nearing its end.

The combination of these factors makes it challenging for Rabi crops to flourish in many regions of India, especially in the areas most dependent on winter rains.

Without adequate rainfall and with higher temperatures, the development of these crops may be slowed, potentially affecting India's overall agricultural output for the season.