News Capsule: China’s push for soybean self-sufficiency is failing — and it no longer seems to care
16-Feb-2026 11:05 AM
News Capsule: China’s push for soybean self-sufficiency is failing — and it no longer seems to care
★ China’s efforts to raise soybean self-sufficiency have not worked. Production rose from 18.09 million tonnes in 2019 to 20.91 million tonnes in 2025, but imports jumped from 88.5 million tonnes to 108 million tonnes, pushing self-sufficiency down from 17% to 16.2%.
★ Analysts say Beijing is less worried now because Brazil has become a reliable, massive supplier. In 2025 alone, China imported 82 million tonnes from Brazil, allowing it to sharply cut purchases from the United States during the latest trade tensions.
★ Soybean demand growth in China has also slowed due to a shrinking population and weaker growth in meat consumption. While China will continue buying U.S. soybeans under long-term commitments, it is unlikely to ever reach even 20% self-sufficiency.
★ Meanwhile, the government keeps domestic farmers afloat by buying surplus soybeans and spending about US$3 billion a year on subsidies to maintain production above 20 million tonnes.