★ As every year, this season too, there is a significant discrepancy between government and private agencies regarding pulse production in Canada and Australia. This is not new — initial estimates are often kept low and then gradually increased as weather and production conditions improve. Interestingly, the situation is quite the opposite in India, where government agencies often report higher production figures compared to trade estimates.

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★ The Australian government agency ABARES has estimated chickpea production at 2.1 million tons and record lentil production at 1.7 million tons for the 2025 season.

★ However, private and trade experts disagree. They estimate chickpea production could be between 2.3 and 2.5 million tons, while lentil production might exceed 1.8 million tons.

★ A similar pattern was observed last season — initial estimates for chickpeas were 1.8 million tons, later revised upward to 2.267 million tons. Lentil estimates were also revised similarly.

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★ Canada’s government agency STATSCAN has pegged 2025 pea production at 3.56 million tons and lentil production at 2.972 million tons.

★ Meanwhile, a leading private agency estimates even higher figures, forecasting pea production at 3.75 million tons and lentil production at 3.6 million tons due to higher per-hectare productivity.

★ We believe that in these countries, initial production figures are deliberately kept low to maintain international price stability and encourage farmers. Showing higher production at the outset could lead to price drops in the market, depriving farmers of fair returns.

★ In contrast, in India, government estimates are often higher than actual production, creating pressure on domestic prices and affecting both farmers and traders.

★ Being a major importing country, India must understand these international reporting practices. Blindly relying on foreign estimates could negatively impact trade strategies and price management.