★ A possible El Niño event in 2026 could have a major impact on global agricultural markets. According to a BMI report, wheat and rice crops are expected to face the highest risk, as rainfall may remain below normal in key Asian producing countries.

★ Wheat sowing and early crop development in regions such as India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and Australia generally begin in October. El Niño conditions are also expected to strengthen during this period, which could negatively affect production and yields. India and Pakistan together account for nearly 17% of global wheat production.

★ Rice production is also at risk, as around 60% of global rice output comes from South and Southeast Asia. However, BMI believes that crop calendar differences in some countries may limit the overall damage. In Vietnam, drier weather could benefit harvesting activities, while in India, Pakistan, and Cambodia, the impact of El Niño is expected to occur during the final stages of crop development.

★ On the other hand, El Niño is considered favorable for soybeans. Argentina and southern Brazil generally receive above-normal rainfall during El Niño years, which could support soybean planting for the 2026-27 season.

★ BMI has warned that if El Niño develops earlier than expected and becomes stronger, crop production in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of South America could face significant negative impacts.