★ Prolonged absence of rainfall across North India and other major producing states has put rabi crops under stress. Although the acreage of wheat, chana, lentil and mustard has increased this season, lack of adequate soil moisture is emerging as a major concern for healthy crop growth. Most rabi crops are currently in the vegetative stage, during which sufficient water is crucial for further development.

★ This year, dry winter conditions have peaked in North India. In the absence of rainfall, farmers are increasingly dependent on irrigation, leading to a steady rise in operational irrigation costs. Higher diesel and electricity expenses are clearly adding pressure on overall production costs.

★ Crop-wise assessment shows that wheat currently requires at least two rainfall spells to ensure strong root development and better crop growth. For mustard, one to two rainfall events are considered ideal; any further delay could adversely affect seed size and oil content. For chana, other pulses and maize, one to two rains are considered sufficient at this stage, while crops such as peas, paddy and maize also continue to require adequate moisture.

★ If rainfall continues to be delayed in the coming days, overall productivity and quality of rabi crops could be negatively impacted. Concerns are particularly high for a possible reduction in oil content in mustard and weaker grain development in wheat.

★ Market participants and farmers alike are closely watching weather developments, as rainfall in the coming weeks could prove decisive for the rabi season.