★ The global sugar market is showing mixed trends. Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026–27 season is estimated to decline to about 418 lakh tonnes, compared with around 435 lakh tonnes in 2025–26, a drop of nearly 17 lakh tonnes. As a result, Brazil’s sugar exports are also expected to fall to around 300 lakh tonnes, down about 11% year-on-year, which is providing some support to international prices.

★ In contrast, rising production prospects in India are putting pressure on prices. According to ISMA, India’s sugar production in 2025–26 is estimated at around 310 lakh tonnes. Sugar output in India during October to December 15, 2025, stood at 78.3 lakh tonnes, about 28% higher than last year. Sugar diversion for ethanol is expected to decline to around 34 lakh tonnes, which could allow higher exports.

★ At the global level, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has projected a sugar surplus of about 16.25 lakh tonnes in 2025–26. Total global sugar production in 2025–26 is expected to rise to around 1,818 lakh tonnes. Thailand’s sugar production is also projected to increase to about 105 lakh tonnes.

★ Overall, higher output in India and Thailand is keeping global supply under pressure, while the outlook for lower production in Brazil in the coming seasons is lending some support to the market.