No possibility of less rain due to early arrival of monsoon

27-May-2025 08:46 PM

New Delhi. It is generally observed that in years when the southwest monsoon arrives much earlier than its scheduled time, the total rainfall across the country tends to be lower.

For example, in 2009, the monsoon arrived as early as 23 May, and the country faced a drought due to below-normal rainfall. That year also experienced intense summer heat.

In 2025, the monsoon entered Kerala on 24 May, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of 1 June, raising concerns about a possible decline in rainfall.

However, the Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that there is no cause for concern regarding a shortfall in rainfall due to the early arrival of the monsoon.

According to the IMD chief, it is not appropriate to draw a direct comparison between 2009 and 2025 because monsoon rainfall is influenced by various seasonal factors. Each year’s monsoon is unique with its own characteristics.

The IMD has forecast above-normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon season. Rainfall is expected to exceed the long-term average (LPA), and the early onset of the monsoon is not likely to affect this projection.

The IMD has predicted 105 percent rainfall of the long-term average, with a margin of ±5 percent, for the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September.

The department remains confident in this forecast. It has also indicated that both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to remain neutral, meaning they will not negatively influence monsoon activity. El Niño conditions are often associated with weaker monsoon performance.

In 2009, total rainfall was recorded at only 689.9 mm compared to the normal average of 892.5 mm. Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the LPA is considered normal, while rainfall between 104 and 110 percent is considered above normal. This year, the monsoon reached Mumbai 16 days earlier than its normal date of 11 June.