Possibility of Stalled Monsoon Withdrawal
30-Sep-2025 01:04 PM
Thiruvananthapuram. Although the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon had already begun on September 14, it has been facing frequent interruptions, causing its retreat to slow down. Once again, an obstacle has emerged. At present, the monsoon’s withdrawal line passes through Veraval and Bharuch in Gujarat, Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh, and Jhansi and Shahjahanpur in Uttar Pradesh. However, the Meteorological Department has said that in the coming seven days, the withdrawal may remain stalled and its progress may be very slow.
According to the Meteorological Department, the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has now intensified into a depression, while another low-pressure area has formed over north-central Maharashtra. The weather in western India appears quite heavy. Even in regions of Gujarat where the monsoon has already withdrawn, and in Konkan and Mumbai, clusters of clouds are likely to arrive. The department has indicated that on October 1, a new rainfall-induced low-pressure area may form over the northern and central parts of the Bay of Bengal, which may persist until October 2. Under its influence, many areas are likely to witness continued rainfall. Meanwhile, a cyclone is passing through the South China Sea basin, and its remnants may also trigger disturbances in the Bay of Bengal.
Moist winds carrying rain from the Bay of Bengal could block the path of the retreating monsoon from the western side, creating a situation of stagnation for a few days. On the other hand, due to low pressure or depression, rainfall is expected over central India and the northern peninsular region. The low-pressure area formed over north Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra is moving towards the Gulf of Khambhat. Later, it may shift towards Saurashtra in Gujarat and then to the northeastern Arabian Sea. By then, another new low-pressure area may develop over the Bay of Bengal.
On the first day of the current week, i.e., September 29, a rain-induced trough was passing through southern Gujarat, Vidarbha, southern Chhattisgarh, southern Odisha, and northern coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas. Another circulation was present over northern Haryana and nearby regions. On the previous day, heavy rainfall was recorded in western India, Odisha, and the northeastern states. Rainfall was also reported in southern India.
