Pressure on the Global Rice Market

10-Jan-2026 11:04 AM

The global market price of rice is likely to remain under considerable pressure in 2026, similar to 2025, as improved production in major exporting countries will ensure ample supply and availability. Since all importing countries are aware of this reality, they are unlikely to rush into purchasing rice and may only import quantities sufficient to meet immediate needs. Indonesia, formerly a leading buyer of rice, is expected to import little to no rice this year, as it has become nearly self-sufficient in the production of this crucial staple. Meanwhile, top exporting countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam are projected to have large surplus stocks of rice, which could lead to increased competition among them to sell their produce. Countries like Pakistan, the US, and Myanmar may also try to increase their rice exports. While the markets of Iran and the US may be closed for Indian Basmati rice exports, shipments of non-Basmati rice to African and Asian countries are expected to be strong, as the offered prices are likely to remain attractive to foreign buyers. Last year, India achieved a remarkable export of 20.1 million tons of rice, and exports this year are expected to be around the same level. This situation can also be considered satisfactory.

Approximately 90 percent of the world's rice is produced in Asia, with India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Pakistan being the major producers. India has been the leading exporter of rice for many years, and despite numerous challenges and obstacles, it maintains its dominance in the international export market. The expected softening of global rice prices this year is likely to provide relief to importing countries.