Record Production in India Puts Pressure on Global Rice Prices

12-Jan-2026 04:06 PM

New Delhi. India has been experiencing excellent rice production for the past few years, and a record harvest is anticipated during the current 2025-26 season as well.

This has resulted in a massive surplus of rice available for export, significantly impacting global market prices. India is the world's leading rice exporter, contributing 40-42 percent of total global exports.

According to trade analysts, news of India's bumper crop will ensure ample supply and availability of rice in the global market, which could keep prices under pressure. Notably, global demand for rice remains weak, and major importing countries have significantly tightened their import regulations.

This could exacerbate the difficulties faced by Indian farmers, who may struggle to obtain attractive or profitable prices for their paddy. Indian exporters will be forced to keep their rice prices competitive compared to countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

At the India International Rice Summit held last week in Raipur, a leading exporter stated that buyers are currently testing the patience of sellers, trying to determine how low rice prices in India can fall given the massive surplus stock.

Increased reserves due to better production in major producing countries indicate that global market prices will likely remain under pressure. According to the Central Ministry of Agriculture,

total rice production in the country during the 2025-26 Kharif season is projected to increase sharply to a new record level of 124.5 million tonnes. The new crop is rapidly entering the market.

Analysts believe that the export offer price for Indian non-basmati rice is currently around $350 per tonne, which could fall by $15-25 per tonne by March-April. Demand for rice in Africa and the Middle East is expected to remain weak in the near future.