Southwest Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala in 4-5 Days: IMD Forecast

20-May-2025 02:38 PM

Southwest Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala in 4-5 Days: IMD Forecast
★ No El Niño Threat This Year; Good Rainfall Expected
★ If the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala in the next 4-5 days, as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), it would be significantly earlier than the normal onset date of June 1—and among the earliest in recent years. Earlier, the IMD had estimated the onset around May 27.
★ Recent Monsoon Onset Dates: 2024: May 30, 2023: June 8, 2022: May 29, 2021: June 3 and 2020: June 1
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★ The monsoon typically begins in Kerala and spreads across the entire country by July 8. It starts withdrawing from northwest India around September 17 and completely recedes by October 15.
★ An early onset could accelerate the sowing of kharif crops, which are crucial for India's agricultural output.
No El Niño Risk This Year
★ The IMD has ruled out El Niño conditions for this season—a relief, as El Niño is often linked to reduced rainfall in India. The absence of this phenomenon indicates the possibility of above-normal rainfall in 2025.