Sugar Production Likely to Fall Well Below Expectations

03-Apr-2026 04:36 PM

Mumbai. At the beginning of the current marketing season, which started in October 2025, there were optimistic projections regarding domestic sugar production. Based on these expectations, the government also allowed the export of 2 million tonnes of sugar. However, as the season progressed, the actual situation began to emerge. Due to inadequate supply of sugarcane, sugar mills have been shutting down at a faster pace compared to last year.

According to trade analysts, for the second consecutive year, the country’s sugar production is likely to remain below domestic consumption. This could put pressure on the remaining stocks held by mills and may support firmness in prices. If exports increase further, the situation could become more challenging. One analyst stated that in the 2025–26 marketing season, it may be difficult for domestic sugar production to exceed 28 million tonnes. Most sugar mills in the country have already closed, and those still operating are receiving limited supplies of sugarcane. Nearly all remaining units may shut down within the next two to three weeks.

Between October 2025 and March 2026, the country produced about 27.1 million tonnes of sugar, which is around 1 million tonnes higher than the total production during the same period last season. Domestic sugar consumption is estimated at 28.5–29 million tonnes, which is likely to be higher than the expected production.