The Threat of El Niño Draws Near

22-Apr-2026 03:45 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: The arrival of the El Niño weather cycle—triggered by the warming of surface waters (or a rise in temperature) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—was initially projected for August-September, then revised to July-August; now, however,

it is being suggested that its activity could intensify at any time between May and July. This is a matter of grave concern, as April and May typically witness substantial pre-monsoon rainfall, while monsoon rains generally commence in June.

The Meteorological Department has forecast the onset of El Niño in June or July; however, certain weather models indicate an earlier arrival. Similarly, while some weather forecasting centers predict a standard El Niño, other climate bureaus are forecasting a 'Super' El Niño.

This has created an atmosphere of uncertainty. An early onset of El Niño in May could prove particularly hazardous, as it could pose significant difficulties for farmers attempting the early sowing of *Kharif* crops. Furthermore, the lack of adequate water reserves in dams and reservoirs threatens to exacerbate these concerns.