Weekly Review-Red Chilli

15-Mar-2025 08:54 PM

Red chilli prices soften but not much slowdown


Key Highlights (March 8–14, 2025)

  1. Red Chilli Prices Show Softening Trend

    • Prices have declined slightly but a major slowdown is unlikely.
    • Current prices are significantly lower than last year, supporting future price stability.
    • Teja quality in Guntur: ₹135 – ₹136/kg.

  2. Ramadan Slows Export Buying

    • Lower demand from exporters due to Ramadan is putting downward pressure on prices.
    • Prices may fall further by ₹3 – ₹5/kg in the short term.
    • Post-April 15: Demand from exporters is expected to increase, pushing prices up.

  3. Production Decline in Key States

    • Sowing area decreased across all major producing states due to last year's record production and poor farmer earnings.
    • Estimated production drops:
      • Andhra Pradesh: 1.5 – 1.75 crore bags (↓45 – 50 lakh bags YoY)
      • Telangana: 60 – 65 lakh bags (↓10 – 15 lakh bags YoY)

  4. Market Arrivals & Price Movements

    • Current arrivals remain strong:
      • Guntur: 1.5 – 1.75 lakh bags/day
      • Khammam: 70,000 – 80,000 bags/day
      • Warangal: 40,000 – 50,000 bags/day
    • Arrival pressure expected until the end of March, then gradual decline in April as farmers hold stock for better prices.
    • Price trends (Teja Quality):
      • Guntur: ₹135 – ₹136/kg
      • Khammam: ₹138 – ₹139/kg
      • Warangal: ₹133 – ₹134/kg
    • Projected Price Movement:
      • Short-term: ₹3 – ₹5/kg decline.
      • Mid-term (June-July): ₹15 – ₹20/kg increase.

  5. Prices Lower Compared to Last Year

    • March 2024 Prices:
      • Guntur: ₹198 – ₹200/kg
      • Khammam: ₹202 – ₹204/kg
      • Warangal: ₹198 – ₹200/kg
    • Current prices are ₹60/kg lower YoY.

  6. Red Chilli Export Trends

    • Exports up 10% YoY (April–November 2024).
    • Total Export Volume: 3,77,778 tonnes
    • Export Revenue: ₹6,162.3 crore (↓13% YoY due to lower prices).
    • 2023-24 total exports: 6,01,084 tonnes
    • 2024-25 forecast: Expected to exceed last year's exports.
    • Record export (2020-21): 6,49,815 tonnes

Market Outlook

  • Short-term: Prices may dip slightly due to weak demand during Ramadan.
  • Mid-term (Post-April 15): Prices likely to rise as exports pick up.
  • Long-term: Seasonal decline in arrivals + rising exports may lead to steady price recovery by June-July.

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