Weekly Review-Wheat

15-Mar-2025 08:45 PM

Wheat market started falling due to arrival of new crop


Key Highlights (March 8–14, 2025)

  1. Wheat Prices Declining Amid New Crop Arrivals

    • Harvesting of early-sown wheat has begun in some areas, increasing market pressure.
    • Prices fell sharply across major states, especially in North India and Madhya Pradesh.

  2. Price Trends Across Key Markets

    • Delhi:
      • North Indian Wheat: ₹3,050 – ₹3,060 per quintal (-₹90)
      • Madhya Pradesh Wheat: ₹2,910 per quintal (-₹90)
    • Madhya Pradesh:
      • Indore, Dewas, Khandwa: -₹50 to ₹75 per quintal
      • Itarsi: -₹200 per quintal
    • Rajasthan:
      • Kota: ₹2,300 – ₹2,800 per quintal (-₹300)
      • Baran: ₹2,450 – ₹2,780 per quintal (-₹170)
      • Bundi: ₹2,450 – ₹2,800 per quintal (-₹50)
      • Baran Arrivals: 10,000 – 12,000 sacks per day
    • Uttar Pradesh:
      • Shahjahanpur, Hardoi, Sitapur, Gonda, Etah: -₹100 to ₹175 per quintal
    • Maharashtra:
      • Jalna: ₹2,500 – ₹2,700 per quintal (-₹100)

  3. Record Domestic Production Expected

    • The Union Agriculture Ministry projects wheat production at 1,154 lakh tonnes for the 2024-25 Rabi season.
    • This all-time high production is likely to increase selling pressure in the market.
    • Good quality wheat is still priced above the MSP of ₹2,425 per quintal, but further price drops may boost government procurement.

  4. Government Procurement Strategy

    • 2025 procurement target: 310 lakh tonnes.
    • Past three years: Procurement has been below target.
    • The government is planning aggressive procurement efforts this year.

  5. Impact of OMSS Closure on Prices

    • The Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) for wheat was halted to support prices.
    • However, instead of a price rise, the market has seen a declining trend due to new arrivals.
    • Further price softening is expected in the short term.

Market Outlook

  • New crop arrivals will continue pressuring prices.
  • Government procurement will be key in stabilizing the market.
  • If prices fall below MSP, farmer distress may increase, prompting intervention.
  • Global wheat trends & trade policies will also influence price movements.

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