According to Export Sales data updated through January 1, total US wheat export commitments, including shipped and unshipped sales, stood at 20.228 MMT, which is 18% higher than a year ago. This is 83% of the USDA export estimate and in line with the average sales pace. Export shipments totaled 15.16 MMT, up 21% from last year. This represents 61% of the USDA export projection and is ahead of the average shipping pace of 57%.

USDA’s Grain Stocks report will be released on Monday. A Reuters survey of analysts shows the average estimate for wheat stocks on hand as of December 1 at 1.636 billion bushels, with a range of estimates from 1.59 to 1.696 billion bushels.

Updated Commitment of Traders data indicated that as of January 6, managed money increased their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options to a total of 107,165 contracts. In contrast, in KC wheat, speculative traders reduced 2,664 contracts from their net short position, bringing it down to 15,655 contracts, the smallest net short since November 2024.