Wheat market continues to strengthen, sentiment remains firm
02-Jan-2026 11:24 AM
Wheat market continues to strengthen, sentiment remains firm
★ The domestic wheat market has been witnessing a sustained firm trend over the past few weeks. Tight demand–supply dynamics and policy-related uncertainties have led to a sharp rise in prices. A brief trade-oriented analysis of the current situation is as follows:
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Bullish fundamentals
★ Continuous increase in rake movement from North India to South India indicates that stocks in northern regions are getting depleted at a faster pace.
★ Southern millers were expecting additional wheat from FCI, but with FCI sales currently on hold, purchases from the open markets of North India have accelerated.
★ As per data available on the online stock declaration portal, stocks are declining at a relatively faster rate, providing further support to the market.
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Market fundamentals
★ Wheat stocks in the central pool are currently at a comfortable level.
★ Adequate quantity of wheat is available for sale under OMSS, keeping the possibility of government intervention open at any time.
★ Rabi sowing has been better this season, soil moisture conditions are favourable, and weather so far remains supportive for the crop.
★ Availability in the open market is also being reported as sufficient at present.
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Key decisions likely to guide market direction
★ A decision on opening exports of wheat and wheat products has been pending in government corridors for a long time. If exports are allowed, it could turn supportive for the market.
★ Rainfall pattern in the coming months and temperature conditions during the harvesting period (heat factor) will play a decisive role in determining market direction.
★ Last year, the MSP bonus announced by Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan resulted in strong government procurement from these states. If such incentives are repeated, procurement for the central pool may increase, which could also impact the open market.
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Price trend
★ In the Delhi market, wheat prices were around Rs 2,790 per quintal on November 26, 2025, which increased to Rs 2,860 per quintal by December 29, 2025. Prices further moved up to Rs 2,950 per quintal on January 1, 2026 and are currently trading around Rs 2,960 per quintal.
★ An increase of about Rs 170 per quintal within a short span of time clearly reflects strong bullish momentum in the wheat segment.
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Near-term outlook
★ After a sharp rise, the market is likely to find technical support near the Rs 2,950 per quintal level in the near term. If prices sustain above this level for a week, another round of upside cannot be ruled out.
★ Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated as long as OMSS sales do not commence and there is no change in stocking limit norms.
Important Disclaimer:
This report is for informational purposes only I-Grain India does not take any responsibility for profits or losses and does not promote any specific market movement (bullish or bearish). *Please make decisions based on your own judgment and understanding.