Wheat market likely to remain stable in the coming months
30-Sep-2025 03:17 PM
New Delhi. Leading industry analysts suggest that in the near future, domestic wheat prices are expected to remain stable at current levels, with only a possible modest rise of 2.0–2.5%. The main reason is that the trade sector, farmers, and the central pool all hold comfortable stocks of wheat, with government reserves at their highest level in the last four years. This ensures that the expected rise in demand during the festive season can be easily met.
According to one senior analyst, “There is no significant bullish momentum in wheat, and even in the near term, an increase of more than 2–2.5% looks unlikely.” Overall, demand and supply appear balanced, limiting the scope for major price gains. The government also holds surplus reserves which can be released to millers and processors anytime through the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). In addition, the government has a massive stock of rice, which is also exerting pressure on the food grain market.
Data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) shows that as of September 1, 2025, the central pool had 33.3 million tonnes of wheat stock—32% higher than last year’s level on the same date and well above the minimum buffer requirement of 27.58 million tonnes. This buffer includes 24.58 million tonnes of operational stock and 3.0 million tonnes of strategic reserve. Thus, the government holds a surplus of 5.5–6.0 million tonnes of wheat.
One market reviewer noted that festive demand could push Delhi wheat prices up by 2.0–2.5% to around ₹2,900 per quintal. In other major wholesale markets across the country too, only limited fluctuations are expected. The key focus now is on the government’s announcement of the next Minimum Support Price (MSP). For the 2024–25 rabi season, wheat MSP was set at ₹2,425 per quintal—₹150 higher than the previous year’s ₹2,275. For the 2025–26 season, the MSP is expected to be raised to around ₹2,600 per quintal.