Al Niño Activity Likely to Begin Around August

01-Apr-2026 11:32 AM

Thiruvananthapuram: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has stated that the La Niña weather cycle has now concluded, and currently, neither the Al Niño nor the La Niña weather cycle is active. This situation is expected to persist for the next two to three months.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to rise steadily; by July, these temperatures could reach levels indicative of a fully developed Al Niño event. Consequently, Al Niño activity is expected to intensify after mid-July and could become fully active by August.

This could impact weather systems across Australia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, potentially affecting rainfall patterns in these regions. Furthermore, countries across the North and South American continents could also be affected.

For India, the Al Niño weather cycle could prove particularly detrimental. The months of July and August typically witness the highest rainfall and the peak sowing period for *Kharif* crops. If rainfall during these two months is low and erratic, it could have an adverse impact—particularly on paddy cultivation—while farmers may also face difficulties in sowing pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, and cotton.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the month of April is likely to remain relatively cool, whereas May is expected to bring intense heat and a prevalence of heatwaves (*Loo*).

As soil moisture levels in the fields continue to deplete, the early sowing of *Kharif* crops will become dependent on the rainfall received in June. Further updates regarding the weather outlook for August and September are expected in due course.