Global Rice Production Expected to Settle at 537.82 Million Tonnes

13-May-2026 07:53 PM

New Delhi. Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest monthly report, has projected that global rice production for the 2026-27 season is likely to decline slightly from the 542.82 million tonnes recorded in the 2025-26 season—settling at 537.82 million tonnes—it has estimated that total global rice availability will actually improve from 733.87 million tonnes to 734.12 million tonnes, driven by high carryover surplus stocks.

The USDA report forecasts an increase in global rice trade and utilization during the 2026-27 season compared to the 2025-26 season, while projecting a likely decline in both production and ending surplus stocks.

During the season under review, global rice consumption is expected to reach a new record high of 541.39 million tonnes—an increase of 3.83 million tonnes. In India, rice utilization is poised to rise sharply, reaching a peak level of 128.00 million tonnes; this represents an increase of 4.00 million tonnes over the 124.00 million tonnes consumed during the 2025-26 season.

Conversely, rice consumption in China is expected to decline during this same period, falling from 147.23 million tonnes to 145.10 million tonnes. Global rice trade is also projected to expand, rising from 60.28 million tonnes to 63.01 million tonnes.