USDA Forecasts Decline in Global Wheat Production

13-May-2026 07:19 PM

Washington. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected that global wheat production will decline from a record level of 843.84 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to 819.06 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season. In its latest monthly report, the USDA stated that the primary contributors to this decline in wheat production will be major exporting nations, including the United States, the European Union, Argentina, and Australia.

According to the USDA report, global wheat consumption is also expected to witness a slight decline. Total global wheat utilization is estimated at 823.52 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, which could drop to 823.23 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season. While wheat consumption for general human food purposes is expected to remain relatively stable, consumption for animal feed production and residual uses is likely to decrease.

In most of the world's leading wheat-producing nations, a decline in production—coupled with increased demand for food, seeding, and residual purposes—will result in reduced stock availability for animal feed purposes. The most significant growth in wheat demand and consumption is anticipated in India, driven by its rapidly growing population and the availability of ample domestic wheat stocks. The Government of India may seek to increase wheat supplies under its Public Distribution System.

Global wheat trade is projected to contract by 11.982 million tonnes, settling at 211.7 million tonnes. Stock levels are expected to remain low in major exporting nations, while demand in North Africa and West Asia may remain subdued. Russia is expected to retain its position as the world's leading wheat exporter in the 2026-27 season, followed by the European Union, Canada, Australia, the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina.