GLOBOIL 2025 PART-1
26-Sep-2025 05:55 PM
GLOBOIL 2025 PART-1
Thomas Milke, World Oil
★ Adequate stocks of oils are available globally. The use of edible oils in biodiesel is expected to decline going forward.
★ Global soybean meal prices could weaken.
★ In 2025-26, global oil consumption was 271.6 MMT compared to 107.6 MMT in 2005-06, showing that the rise in consumption has not been very significant.
★ Soybean and palm oil together account for 57% of total global consumption, but the pace of consumption growth is very weak. If biodiesel use of oils increases, stocks could tighten.
★ India’s edible oil imports are expected to rise by 1.5 MMT next year.
★ Palm oil prices could decline, while soybean oil imports may increase.
★ Palm oil now determines the pricing trend of all other oils.
★ Between April and September 2022-23, palm oil accounted for 54% of total exports, which has now fallen to 49%.
★ Palm oil exports were also affected due to reduced production. Palm oil output declined between 2019 and 2021 but has increased from 2022 to 2025. In Indonesia, aging trees may cause production to drop in the future.
★ The Indonesian government declared nearly 1 million hectares of land as illegal encroachment but allowed palm harvesting there. However, new plantations will not be allowed in this area.
★ Global palm oil production may decline going forward.
★ Indonesia’s B-50 biodiesel plan is unlikely to succeed. Even B-45 was highly challenging, and in 2025, for the first time, Indonesia’s domestic consumption of palm oil matched its exports.
★ With China halting soybean purchases from the US, availability has increased.
★ To support its farmers, the US may increase the use of soybean oil in biodiesel.
★ Sunflower oil remains more expensive than other oils, which could lead to higher sunflower oil imports in India.
★ Argentine sunflower oil prices are $60–70 lower than European Union oil.
★ Large-scale sunflower crushing is happening in Argentina, and global sunflower oil imports are likely to rise in the coming years.