GLOBOIL 2025 PART-2
26-Sep-2025 06:00 PM
GLOBOIL 2025 PART-2
Dorab Mistry
★ In his previous presentation, Dorab Mistry had projected palm oil prices at 3,500 ringgit, and prices later rose to 3,700 ringgit.
★ China disrupted the US soybean market, which boosted crushing and led to soybean oil exports from the US to India.
★ India may also import soybean oil from China.
★ India’s shift from importing palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia to sourcing from Latin American countries, along with imports of soy, soybean oil, and Canadian canola, has ended the monopoly of a few countries.
★ Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is not satisfactory.
★ US tariffs imposed by President Trump on several products created hurdles in the import and export of many oils.
★ In September, India imported a large volume of CPO (crude palm oil) from Thailand.
★ Palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 MMT in 2025-26 compared to 2024-25.
★ Indonesia successfully completed its B-40 biodiesel program, but moving to B-50 will take much longer.
★ Mustard oil prices in India are currently high, and acreage is expected to expand next year.
★ Sunflower production may increase in Black Sea countries and Argentina in 2025-26.
★ If the war between Russia and Ukraine ends, sunflower oil prices could rise.
★ India’s total edible oil imports may increase in 2026.
★ Dorab Mistry projected that between January and March 2026, palm oil prices could reach 5,500 ringgit, mainly due to Ramadan and Chinese New Year holidays.
★ US biodiesel programs could push CBOT soybean oil prices to 70 cents.
★ Coconut oil prices are expected to remain high, around $2,000 CIF Rotterdam in international markets.
★ According to Dorab Mistry, soybean oil imports may reach 5 MMT in 2025-26, compared to 5.1 MMT in 2024-25.
★ Palm oil imports may reach 9.3 MMT in 2025-26, compared to 8.2 MMT in 2024-25, while sunflower oil imports are estimated at 2.7 MMT, down from 3.0 MMT in 2024-25.
★ Total oil imports in 2025-26 are expected to reach 17.1 MMT, compared to 16.35 MMT in 2024-25.