The scenario you've described reflects the complex interplay of global trade dynamics, particularly regarding the relationship between the U.S. and China, and its impact on commodity prices, including soybean and edible oils in Bangladesh.

Here’s a summary of how things might unfold based on the trade analyst’s perspective:

1. Potential Impact of High Duty on Chinese Goods: If the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on Chinese goods, China might retaliate by reducing imports of U.S. products, including agricultural commodities like soybeans. The immediate effect would likely be a reduced demand for American soybeans in China, which could push U.S. soybean prices down. Given that soybean is a key input for edible oils, this could lead to lower prices for edible oil in Bangladesh, which imports a significant portion of its oil from the U.S.

2. Shifting Trade Patterns: In response to lower U.S. demand, American soybean producers might seek new markets, such as Brazil and Argentina, which are already major suppliers to China. However, Brazil and Argentina would need to meet the global demand, which could influence pricing. A potential shift in soybean trade routes could lead to price adjustments that benefit countries like Bangladesh, which imports a large portion of its edible oil from the U.S.

3. Price Fluctuations in the Global Market: The fall in U.S. soybean prices from $530 per ton to $480 per ton in the last six months indicates a softening of the market. If the trend continues and U.S. soybeans lose ground in China, global soybean prices could decline further, benefiting importing countries like Bangladesh.

4. Wider Economic Implications: The potential reduction in edible oil prices would also likely affect other industries reliant on these inputs. For example, the prices of poultry feed, dairy products, and cattle feed could decrease due to lower raw material costs, offering some relief to local businesses and consumers.

5. Past Precedents: The reference to Trump's earlier tenure (2016-2019) shows that such trade measures can have significant effects on global agricultural trade. During his first administration, the U.S. used tariffs to pressure China into buying more American soybeans and other agricultural products. If similar strategies are applied again, the impact on both the U.S. agricultural sector and countries like Bangladesh could be comparable.

Conclusion: If the Trump administration imposes high customs duties on Chinese goods, it could reduce the demand for American soybeans in China, potentially lowering global soybean prices. This could translate into cheaper edible oils in Bangladesh, benefiting consumers and industries dependent on feed and other soy-based products. However, the shifting global trade dynamics may have mixed effects, depending on how countries like Brazil and Argentina adjust their production and export strategies.