Rice Prices Likely to Remain Stable on Adequate Supply

28-Nov-2025 10:54 AM

New Delhi. Domestic rice production has been increasing year after year, which has facilitated supply and availability in the domestic market, and prices have remained largely stable.

The 2023-24 season was an exception, when poor production led to a sharp rise in rice prices, forcing the government to ban commercial exports of non-basmati white rice. However, exports will reopen as soon as conditions improve in the 2024-25 season.

The Union Agriculture Ministry has estimated domestic rice production to increase to 125.4 million tonnes during the current Kharif marketing season, exceeding last year's production of 122.77 million tonnes.

The area under paddy cultivation increased to an all-time high of 44.1 million hectares during the Kharif season, while the crop was also supported by abundant rainfall from the southwest monsoon.

While surplus rainfall and flooding damaged crops in some places, a significant increase in overall production is still anticipated.

Industry and trade analysts predict that rice prices may decline further due to the robust production. Production is expected to improve in Telangana.

Various irrigation projects have provided adequate water to the rice crop, significantly increasing farmers' interest in rice cultivation.

However, producers are increasingly focused on increasing the yield of standard rice, leading to signs of a decline in the production of specialty or "A" varieties of rice, such as Sona Masoor and BPT.

Rice exports are not particularly encouraging, forcing India to lower its export offer price. There is intense competition among India,

Thailand, Pakistan, and Vietnam to dominate the Asian and African markets. Non-basmati rice exports reached only 7.02 million tonnes in the April-September 2025 half year.