Rice Supply Feared to be Impacted by Iran-US Conflict and El Niño
30-Apr-2026 08:40 PM
Hanoi. The persistence of the conflict (or tense situation) involving Iran, Israel, and the United States in West Asia—coupled with the disruption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—is driving up the import costs for energy sources (fuel) and chemical fertilizers.
Consequently, there are apprehensions that this situation could adversely affect paddy cultivation in the major rice-producing nations of South and Southeast Asia. A decline in the area dedicated to paddy production in these regions is considered likely.
Furthermore, the severe impact of the El Niño weather cycle is expected to be felt across several countries during the current year, potentially leading to reduced rainfall and prevailing dry, hot weather conditions. Such conditions would be unfavorable for paddy crops and could negatively affect production output.
If the issues of fertilizer shortages and high prices persist, the outlook for global rice production during the 2026-27 season could become significantly precarious. This would likely result in a reduction in the exportable surplus stocks of rice in countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Cambodia.
Consequently, this poses a risk of exacerbating global supply complexities. Many nations across Asia and Africa are compelled to import vast quantities of rice annually to ensure their domestic food security.
As far as India is concerned, the government does not appear overly concerned regarding the West Asia crisis or the potential impact of El Niño. The government asserts that the country possesses robust irrigation infrastructure; therefore, even in the event of a weak monsoon, paddy cultivation is unlikely to suffer any significant adverse effects.
Concurrently, every possible effort is being undertaken to ensure the adequate availability of chemical fertilizers. The government is procuring fertilizers from abroad at higher market rates but is supplying them to farmers at reasonable prices by absorbing the burden of the subsidy itself.
As India stands as the world's leading producer and exporter of rice, any decline in its domestic production or exportable surplus stocks could trigger a rapid surge in global market prices.