Sugar production is expected to decrease in Brazil and increase in Thailand

25-Feb-2025 06:31 PM

The global sugar market is experiencing notable shifts, with sugar production expected to fall in Brazil and rise in Thailand, influenced by weather conditions and other factors. Here's a summary of the key points:

  1. Brazil's Sugar Production Decline:

    • Brazil, the world's largest sugarcane producer, is facing a significant decrease in sugar production due to severe heat, drought, and incidents of arson in 2024.
    • Sugar production is expected to fall from 460 lakh tonnes in the 2023-24 season to 440 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
    • The central southern region of Brazil, which produces 90% of the country's sugar, will see a 5.5% decline, dropping to 398.05 lakh tonnes.
    • Approximately 50 lakh tonnes of sugarcane crop were destroyed due to fires caused by heat in Sao Paulo province.

  2. Thailand's Sugar Production Increase:

    • In contrast, Thailand is expected to see a 18% increase in sugar production, from 87.70 lakh tonnes in the 2023-24 season to 103.50 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
    • This increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions, with Thailand maintaining normal production levels.
    • Thailand is the second-largest sugar exporter globally, after Brazil.

  3. Global Sugar Market Outlook:

    • The US Department of Agriculture forecasts global sugar production to rise by 1.5%, reaching 1866.20 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
    • Global consumption is expected to grow by 1.2%, reaching 1796.30 lakh tonnes.
    • The global sugar stock is predicted to be 454.27 lakh tonnes at the end of the season.
    • The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a global sugar deficit of 25.10 lakh tonnes for the 2024-25 season, compared to a surplus of 13.10 lakh tonnes in the previous season.

These changes in production patterns reflect how local weather events and global market conditions are shaping sugar supply and demand dynamics. The increased production in Thailand may partly offset Brazil's shortfall, but the overall global market is projected to experience a deficit.

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