There is a difference of more than 50 lakh tonnes between the government and trade production estimates of wheat
20-Mar-2025 03:36 PM
New Delhi. For the current Rabi season of 2024-25, the Union Agriculture Ministry has estimated a record domestic production of 1154.30 lakh tonnes of wheat, while industry-trade organizations have expressed the possibility of production of about 1100 lakh tonnes.
In this way, there is a difference of more than 50 lakh tonnes in the production estimates of both the sides, due to which a phase of speculation has started in the market and wheat prices have stabilized.
Due to the pressure of record government production estimates, there was a possibility of a significant fall in the price of wheat and some initial indications of this were also received, but now the decline seems to be decreasing.
The interesting fact is that the wheat production estimate made by industry-trade organizations is also a new record level.
According to trade analysts, a huge difference of more than 50 lakh tonnes in the government and trade (processing industry) estimates of wheat can confuse the market and if there is a situation of confusion or uncertainty, prices may rise.
Sporadic harvesting and preparation of the new wheat crop has started, while its pace will increase from next month. However, this time less difference is being seen in the wheat production of the Central Agriculture Ministry and the processing industry.
For example, in the Rabi season of 2023-24, the ministry had estimated the production of about 11.33 lakh tonnes and industry-trade organizations had estimated the production of 1040 lakh tonnes of wheat.
The period of huge difference in production estimates started in the 2021-22 season itself when the government had expressed the possibility of production of 1077 lakh tonnes of wheat, but the estimate of the industry-trade sector was much below this.
At that time, the yield rate and quality of wheat were badly affected due to bad weather just before the start of harvesting and preparation of the crop. When the market price was very high, the government had imposed a ban on the export of wheat and its products, which is still in force.
The President of Roller Flour Millers Federation of India says that about 1020-1030 lakh tons of wheat stock is required in the country for the quantity required for seed and processing as well as other items.
Considering the huge production figures, the domestic market price of wheat should remain stable to a great extent this year. Last month, the inflation rate in wheat was recorded at 9.17 percent on an annual basis.