Trade Estimate Pegs Cotton Production at 30.9 Million Bales

08-Dec-2025 03:16 PM

Mumbai. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), a leading trade body, has projected that cotton production in the country during the current 2025–26 marketing season (October–September) will be 30.9 million bales (each bale weighing 170 kg). This is just 0.3 million bales lower than the estimated production of 31.2 million bales in the 2024–25 season. However, during the same period, the cotton acreage at the national level declined by 3 lakh hectares, and excess rainfall and floods during the monsoon season caused crop damage. Taking these factors into account, the Union Agriculture Ministry has estimated that cotton output may fall below 30 million bales. But the Association believes that the impact of the rains and floods was limited and that the surviving crop is in good condition, resulting in improved average yield.

It is noteworthy that CAI had projected cotton production at 30.5 million bales in its November report, but in the December report, this estimate was revised upward by 0.4 million bales. The Association releases data on domestic cotton production, consumption, trade, and carryover stocks based on inputs received from its members and other trade sources across the 11 major cotton-producing states of the country. It has been stated that the December estimates carry a possible variation of ±3%.

According to the Association, total cotton production during the first two months of the ongoing marketing season—October and November 2025—stood at 6.98 million bales. For the full season, domestic cotton consumption is expected to decline to 29.5 million bales, which is 1.9 million bales lower than the total consumption of 31.4 million bales in the 2024–25 season. Cotton exports from the country are estimated at 1.8 million bales, similar to last year’s level.