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08-Oct-2026 01:56 PM
New Delhi: The Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA Post) in India has revised its sugar production forecast for the 2026-27 marketing season (October-September). The estimate has been reduced by 14 percent, bringing the projected figure down from 336 lakh tonnes to 295 lakh tonnes. According to the USDA Post report, this downward revision is driven by two main factors: the likelihood of reduced sugarcane yields and lower average sugar recovery rates due to deficient monsoon rainfall, and the observed incidence of pest and disease infestations in sugarcane crops in certain areas.
The report projects that India could produce 295 lakh tonnes of raw sugar during the 2026-27 season, an output equivalent to 276 lakh tonnes of granulated (white) sugar and 62,000 tonnes of Khandsari sugar. The USDA Post has also lowered its estimate for India's sugarcane acreage by approximately 1 percent to 59 lakh hectares, a figure that aligns closely with data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture.
According to the report, a combination of reduced planting area and deficient rainfall could see sugarcane yields drop to 434 million tonnes (43.40 crore tonnes)—about 6 percent lower than the earlier forecast of 463 million tonnes (46.30 crore tonnes). Major producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka experienced not only scanty monsoon rainfall but also prolonged dry spells. Additionally, unseasonal rains and the prolonged stagnation of floodwaters in fields in certain states—including parts of Uttar Pradesh, the country's largest sugarcane producer—have exacerbated pest and disease outbreaks in the crop. Estimating that the average sugar recovery rate from sugarcane will drop to 8.6 percent, the USDA post projects that India's total sugar consumption will rise to 29 million tonnes (31 million tonnes in raw value) in the 2026-27 season. Consequently, sugar consumption in India is expected to exceed production by 1.3–1.4 million tonnes this time.
