Weekly Review-Turmeric

14-Dec-2024 07:55 PM

Turmeric production less than forecasts - Crop damage in other areas except Nizamabad

Turmeric Production Below Forecasts The turmeric market is experiencing lower production than initially forecast. Although the sowing area in key producing states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra has increased by 30-40% compared to last year, crop damage from pests and weather has led to a revised production estimate of 70-75 lakh bags, down from the earlier projection of 80-82 lakh bags. Reports indicate that the crop in Maharashtra has been particularly affected by pest attacks, while Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have faced damage due to excessive rainfall. However, the crop in Nizamabad remains in good condition.

Price Trends and Market Activity The turmeric market has seen prices hover between Rs 100-200 due to low export and local demand. Despite this, prices are expected to remain high in 2025, with a more favorable crop but lower-than-expected production. The beginning of this week saw December turmeric futures open at Rs 13,010 and close at Rs 13,100, while April futures opened at Rs 14,070 and closed at Rs 13,958. In the spot and futures markets, prices have remained stable within a narrow range.

Production Trends Over Five Years Turmeric production has been on a declining trend over the past five years. The 2020 crop was estimated at 94-95 lakh bags, which decreased in 2021 to 85-90 lakh bags, further dropped to 78-80 lakh bags in 2022, and rebounded to 82-85 lakh bags in 2023. However, the 2024 crop is expected to be much lower, at around 45-50 lakh bags, the lowest in the past five years. Looking ahead, production for 2025 is forecast to be 70-75 lakh bags.

Consumption and Availability India requires about one crore bags of turmeric annually to meet both local consumption and exports. This season, with new production of 70-75 lakh bags and outstanding stock of 15-18 lakh bags, the total availability will be lower than the demand. This supply-demand mismatch suggests that turmeric prices may remain strong through 2025.

State-Wise Production Estimates

  • Marathwada: Expected to produce 30-32 lakh bags.
  • Sangli: Estimated at 8-10 lakh bags.
  • Tamil Nadu: Estimated at 10-12 lakh bags.
  • Nizamabad: Estimated at 12-14 lakh bags.
  • Andhra Pradesh: Likely to produce 2-3 lakh bags.
  • Other regions: Expected to produce 3-4 lakh bags.

Declining Turmeric Imports India's turmeric imports have been on a downward trajectory over the last five years. In 2019-20, 28,580 tonnes were imported, and this decreased to 14,638 tonnes in 2023-24. This trend reflects reduced import dependence, likely due to domestic production surpluses in previous years.

Export Trends Turmeric exports have remained stable, with 92,911 tonnes exported in the first half of 2024-25, nearly identical to the same period in 2023. In recent years, India has experienced record export levels, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020-21, exports peaked at 183,868 tonnes but have since returned to more typical levels. Exports in 2023-24 totaled 162,019 tonnes, which indicates steady demand for Indian turmeric in international markets.

Conclusion While turmeric prices have remained stable in the short term, the reduced production forecast for 2024, combined with low availability and steady demand, suggests that prices could rise in 2025. Farmers, traders, and exporters should prepare for potential price fluctuations due to ongoing crop conditions and supply-demand imbalances.

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