Wheat Production Likely to Decline by 5-10 Percent Due to Adverse Weather
24-Apr-2026 03:35 PM
New Delhi: The Union Ministry of Agriculture has projected that domestic wheat production will rise from last year's figure of 117.94 million tonnes to reach 120.21 million tonnes this year. However, industry and trade analysts believe that the wheat crop has suffered damage due to a spate of storms, unseasonal rainfall, and localized hailstorms occurring between mid-March and the first week of April. Consequently, wheat production could fall by 5–10 percent—even dropping below last year's levels. Furthermore, the quality of the wheat has also deteriorated.
A decline in production could impact government wheat procurement. For the past three to four years, procurement has consistently fallen significantly short of the set targets. This year, a procurement target of 30.337 million tonnes (excluding the increase recorded in Madhya Pradesh) has been established; while the government may face difficulties in achieving this goal, it poses no threat to national food security, as a massive stock of wheat is already available in the Central Pool.
According to a leading analyst, the area under wheat cultivation expanded by approximately 600,000 hectares this year, and the crop's condition appeared quite promising until February. However, just prior to the commencement of harvest preparations, the crop sustained partial damage due to unseasonal rains and severe storms.
More than 80 percent of the country's wheat is produced in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, while their combined contribution to the Central Pool exceeds 95 percent.
Wheat crops in all these states were subjected to natural calamities. Following reports that the wheat grains had become discolored and lacked luster, the government has granted relaxations regarding quality specifications.
According to one analyst, the country's wheat production this year could range between 106.0 and 107.0 million tonnes—the lowest figure recorded in the last seven years. Other analysts are estimating wheat production to be higher than this, at 108–110 million tonnes.