Canada & US Market/Crop Report: Lentils

20-Nov-2024 11:53 AM

Canada & US Market/Crop Report: Lentils
Canada
Production Increase: Canadian lentil production is expected to rise significantly in 2024-25, with an increase of approximately 800,000 tonnes (44%) to reach 2.6 million tonnes.

Red Lentils: Production is expected to see a sharp rise to 1.6 million tonnes, up from previous years.
Large Green Lentils: Production is expected to double to 700,000 tonnes.
Other Lentils: Production of other types is expected to rise to 300,000 tonnes.
Supply & Stocks: Despite the production increase, supply is forecast to be 35% lower due to the low levels of old stocks.

Outstanding Stocks: Expected to increase to 480,000 tonnes, providing a buffer for the market.
Exports: Canadian lentil exports are projected at 2.1 million tonnes.

Top Export Markets: India, Turkey, and the UAE are expected to remain the largest importers of Canadian lentils.
Prices:

Average Price: The average price is expected to fall by 15% to $850/tonne due to the rise in production.
On-farm Prices (October):
Large Green Lentils: Prices in Saskatchewan rose by $165/ton.
Red Lentils: Prices rose by $65/ton.
Price Comparison: The price gap between large green lentils and red lentils has widened. Large green lentils are now priced $510/ton higher than red lentils, compared to a difference of $785/ton in 2023-24.

United States
Acreage & Production:
Acreage Increase: US lentil acreage is projected to increase by 71% in 2024-25 compared to 2023-24, signaling a large expansion of the lentil growing area.
Production Increase: US lentil production is projected to reach 430,000 tonnes, a 66% increase from the previous year, although the increase is primarily driven by a higher planted area, as yields are expected to be lower.
Key Takeaways:
Canada: Significant growth in lentil production, particularly in red and large green lentils, but a tight supply situation due to low old stocks. Exports will remain strong, but prices are expected to drop due to increased production.
US: A sharp rise in acreage and production is expected, which could impact market dynamics, particularly with yields lower than anticipated.