Contrary to expectations, palm oil imports are expected to fall significantly in April

06-May-2025 11:51 AM

Mumbai. Although earlier it was believed that the decline in palm oil prices would lead to a significant increase in its imports in India, industry and trade analysts now say that, at least for April, palm oil imports not only failed to rise but dropped sharply.

According to analysts, palm oil imports are expected to fall by 24 percent to 3.22 lakh tonnes in April compared to March. If the decline in prices is to influence imports, the impact may only become visible in May or June.

Previously, the export offer price of palm oil was higher than that of soybean oil for India, but it has now fallen below soybean oil, which may lead to a larger volume of palm oil imports for May-June shipments.

Since the beginning of the current marketing season in November 2024, palm oil imports have consistently remained below normal levels.

Due to weak import performance from November to March, palm oil stock levels in India have fallen significantly, leading to expectations of higher imports in April — which did not materialize.

Analysts also expect a 6 percent decline in sunflower oil imports in April, bringing it down to 1.80 lakh tonnes from March levels. In contrast, soybean oil imports are projected to rise by 2 percent to reach 3.63 lakh tonnes.

This brings the total estimated edible oil imports for April to 8.65 lakh tonnes — comprising 3.63 lakh tonnes of soybean oil, 3.22 lakh tonnes of palm oil, and 1.80 lakh tonnes of sunflower oil — which is 11 percent lower than imports recorded in March.

These estimates have been provided by trade-industry analysts, while the official monthly report from the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) is expected in mid-May.

This report will present the complete breakdown of edible oil imports for April 2025. Generally, the SEA’s data is regarded as reliable and often closely matches the estimates put forth by trade analysts.