Despite a slight reduction in domestic sugar production for the 2024-25 marketing season, a significant rise in sugar prices seems unlikely.

This is due to the large carryover stock from the previous season, which stood at around 80 lakh tonnes on October 1, 2024.

With an expected production of 310-315 lakh tonnes in the current season, total sugar availability could reach 390-395 lakh tonnes. In comparison, domestic consumption is projected to be 290 lakh tonnes, and exports remain banned, suggesting that there will be no immediate pressure on prices.

The possibility of higher prices is further constrained by the stock situation and the ongoing ban on sugar exports. However, if sugar usage in ethanol production increases by an additional 15-20 lakh tonnes, it may help alleviate some pressure on sugar mills.

In response, sugar millers are urging the government to increase ethanol prices, a move that might be considered to provide relief to the industry.

Although the sugarcane crushing season has formally started, production is lagging behind the previous year due to a limited number of operational mills until mid-November.

However, sugar production is expected to accelerate in the coming months, especially in major producing states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka. This increase in production should continue until March 2025, after which the pace will likely slow down.