Global soybean production expected to increase by 307 lakh tonnes

11-Nov-2024 05:05 PM

The USDA's latest report paints a positive picture for global soybean production in the 2023-24 season, with an expected increase of 3.07 crore (307 lakh) tonnes, raising total global production from 39.47 crore tonnes to 42.54 crore tonnes. This growth is largely driven by expected strong yields in the top soybean-producing countries, including Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina.

Key Highlights:

Brazil is anticipated to lead the production increase, with output rising from 15.30 crore tonnes to 16.90 crore tonnes.

The U.S. is expected to see a modest increase, from 11.33 crore tonnes to 12.14 crore tonnes.

Argentina's soybean production is also forecast to grow, from 4.82 crore tonnes to 5.10 crore tonnes.

China's production, however, is projected to decline significantly, from 208.4 lakh tonnes to just 20 lakh tonnes.

The USDA also notes that, despite the increase in production, global soybean consumption will only rise slightly from 38.42 crore tonnes to 40.03 crore tonnes. As a result, surplus stocks of soybeans are expected to increase, from 1010 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 to 1124 lakh tonnes in 2024-25. By the end of the 2024-25 season, the global outstanding stock could reach 1317 lakh tonnes.

Trade Implications:

Exports from Brazil and the U.S. are likely to rise significantly due to the increased production, while imports are expected to remain stable at 1779 lakh tonnes globally.

The strong production in the Northern Hemisphere has already begun, setting the stage for a surplus in global soybean markets, which may have implications for prices and trade patterns.

This surge in global soybean output indicates a more stable supply, which could help meet the growing demand for soybeans globally, especially in feed and oil markets. However, the drop in China’s domestic production will be a key factor to watch, as it may influence global trade flows.