Global Wheat Production Forecast to Fall Relative to Consumption

24-Apr-2026 06:41 PM

New Delhi. On one hand, global wheat production is projected to decline during the 2026-27 season compared to 2025-26; on the other, a significant increase in its consumption is anticipated. Consequently, global carryover stocks are expected to experience a natural decline.

In its March report, the International Grains Council (IGC) had estimated total global wheat production for the 2026-27 season at 822 million tonnes; in its April report, this figure was revised downward by 1 million tonnes to 821 million tonnes.

Although the Council also lowered its estimate for global wheat consumption for this period—reducing it by 4 million tonnes from 829 million tonnes to 825 million tonnes—this figure still remains 4 million tonnes higher than the projected production. The estimate for global wheat carryover stocks has been revised upward by 8 million tonnes compared to the March report, setting it at 284 million tonnes.

For the 2025-26 season, the IGC has maintained its wheat production estimate at the previous level of 845 million tonnes; however, it has lowered its estimate for global consumption by 6 million tonnes to 819 million tonnes. Conversely, the global carryover surplus stock is now projected to reach 289 million tonnes—an increase of 6 million tonnes over the previous estimate.

A decline in future wheat production is anticipated in several countries. It is understood that the El Niño weather pattern could adversely affect wheat production in nations such as Australia, Argentina, and Brazil.

Similarly, in certain other countries—including Canada—farmers are facing significant challenges in securing adequate supplies of chemical fertilizers at reasonable prices; consequently, they may prioritize the cultivation of crops that require lower fertilizer inputs.