Impact of the Canada–China deal on India
19-Jan-2026 10:53 AM
Impact of the Canada–China deal on India
★ From 1 March, China will completely remove the 100% import duty on peas and canola meal imported from Canada. At the same time, the import duty on canola seed will be reduced from 85% to 15%.
★ This decision is expected to provide strong support to Canada’s oilseed and pulse exports.
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Impact on India
Peas
★ Due to the earlier 100% import duty imposed by China, India was the only major buyer of Canadian peas, which led to a continuous decline in Canadian pea prices.
★ With the complete removal of the import duty, the Chinese market has reopened for Canada. This is likely to support international pea prices, raise India’s import parity, and lead to higher prices in the domestic Indian market.
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Canola and canola meal
★ With the import duty on canola meal being fully removed, China is expected to import large volumes from Canada.
★ Earlier, because of high Chinese duties, India was exporting significant quantities of mustard meal to China.
★ As the Canadian supply re-enters the Chinese market, demand for Indian meal is likely to decline, which could negatively impact India’s exports.
★ Strong demand from China had earlier boosted mustard crushing activity in India, which may now slow down.
★ Overall, this development is not considered positive for India.
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Canola seed
★ The direct impact of this deal on India is expected to be limited, as India does not export mustard or canola seed to China. However, the decision could strengthen international oilseed markets.