India on the path to become the largest producer of rice

29-May-2025 07:21 PM

New Delhi. The third advance estimate released by the Union Agriculture Ministry indicates that India's gross food grain production for the 2024–25 season has reached 353.2 million tonnes, marking an increase of about 6 percent compared to the 2023–24 season.

This surge includes significant growth in the production of rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. Rice production is estimated to rise by 8 percent to 149.07 million tonnes, while wheat production is expected to grow by 3.7 percent to 117.5 million tonnes.

If India achieves the projected rice production of 149.1 million tonnes for the 2024–25 marketing season, it will surpass China to become the world’s largest rice producer.

Until now, China has consistently led in rice and wheat production, with India holding the second position. However, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s rice output for the 2024–25 season is expected to be 145.28 million tonnes—about 3.8 million tonnes less than India’s projected figure.

India has been the world’s top rice exporter since 2012, while China frequently depends on rice imports to meet its domestic demand.

With the rapid increase in rice production, India’s exportable surplus is also set to grow, further boosting its dominance in the global rice export market.

The strong performance of the 2024 crop can be attributed to a favorable southwest monsoon, which brought 108 percent of average rainfall. This supported increased sowing and better yields of the paddy crop.

The Agriculture Ministry also noted a rise in average yield rates due to improved weather conditions. For the 2025–26 season, another good monsoon is forecasted with 106 percent rainfall, which may further enhance rice production.