La Niña Weakening, El Niño Likely in June-July

04-Feb-2026 07:55 PM

Thiruvananthapuram. The La Niña weather pattern, which influences rainfall, is steadily weakening, while some weather models indicate that the El Niño weather pattern may emerge from June 2026 and remain active for the next few months. Typically, the southwest monsoon in India weakens during an El Niño event.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the La Niña weather pattern has dissipated, and sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are currently within the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) range (minus 0.80 degrees Celsius to plus 0.80 degrees Celsius).

The formation of El Niño will depend on how the temperature behaves there in the coming period. If the temperature rises from the neutral range to the positive range, the probability of El Niño increases. The higher the temperature, the stronger the El Niño.

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that El Niño may arrive in the second half of the four-month southwest monsoon season.

The monsoon begins in June, with the first half lasting until July. The remaining half is in August-September.

This means that El Niño activity could increase after July. It is noteworthy that July and August are considered the months with the highest rainfall in India. Most of the Kharif crops are cultivated during these two months.

Very few models are indicating the arrival of El Niño in June. If El Niño activity leads to reduced rainfall in July-August or later, it could create problems.