Likelihood of Decline in Basmati Rice Production and Firm Prices

18-Sep-2026 01:34 PM

New Delhi. Basmati rice production is likely to decline due to an approximately 4 percent drop in the area under Basmati paddy cultivation. Western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana have witnessed a relatively sharper decline in acreage. Consequently, market prices for Basmati paddy are expected to remain firm.

Industry analysts suggest that Indian Basmati rice exporters may demand higher prices from foreign buyers during the 2026-27 marketing season. Demand for Indian Basmati rice is expected to remain robust in West Asia, the Middle East, and the Gulf region due to ongoing US-Iran tensions; these nations may seek to import large quantities to build significant stockpiles and ensure domestic food security. These regions account for approximately 70 percent of India's Basmati rice exports. Production had risen to nearly 10 million tonnes (100 lakh tonnes) in the 2025-26 season.

According to trade analysts, the total area under Basmati paddy cultivation stood at 2.49 million hectares (24.90 lakh hectares) in 2025, but saw a reduction of about 0.1 million hectares (1 lakh hectares) in 2026. Acreage in Punjab remained largely unchanged compared to the previous year, and production there is expected to increase; the crop had suffered damage last year due to heavy rains and severe floods. Total domestic cultivation area for Basmati paddy had reached around 2.75 million hectares (27.50 lakh hectares) in 2024, marking a significant decline in area this time around.

Basmati paddy is cultivated in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, and Jammu & Kashmir (two districts).