Monsoon Expected to Arrive on Schedule in Myanmar

12-May-2026 10:38 AM

Mandalay. The first organized indications suggesting that the Southwest Monsoon will arrive in Myanmar on schedule have begun to emerge. The formation of two low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify atmospheric activity, thereby boosting the genesis and momentum of the monsoon.

Myanmar's Department of Meteorology states that the monsoon is likely to arrive in the southern parts of the country between May 13 and May 17, whereas its usual arrival date for this region is typically set at May 18. The monsoon will gradually advance to reach other parts of the country. In its initial phase, its pace is expected to remain normal.

Between May 18 and May 22, the monsoon is likely to cover most regions of Myanmar. It is noteworthy that this coincides with the period when the Southwest Monsoon reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands; after remaining active there for approximately 10 days, it typically arrives on the Indian mainland during the last week of May or the first week of June.

The meteorological agency indicates that atmospheric activity over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify significantly from May 11 through the following fortnight.

This activity is expected to lead to the formation of two low-pressure areas. One of these systems could potentially intensify into a depression, thereby significantly increasing its intensity. Such a sequence of events will facilitate the monsoon's advancement, raising expectations for good rainfall across several regions.

Meanwhile, in India as well, the Southwest Monsoon is projected to arrive on schedule. Any potential adverse impact of El Niño is unlikely to become severe until after June. During the initial phase, various parts of the country are expected to receive normal monsoon rainfall.