News Capsule: India wheat market under pressure; prices may slip below MSP
19-Dec-2025 11:20 AM
News Capsule: India wheat market under pressure; prices may slip below MSP
★ India’s wheat production in the 2025–26 crop year is estimated at around 1,220 lakh tonnes, up from about 1,175 lakh tonnes last year, indicating an increase of nearly 45–50 lakh tonnes. Higher acreage and better yields are likely to create surplus conditions in the market, raising the risk of wheat prices falling below the minimum support price (MSP).
★ Government carryover stocks are expected to be close to 200 lakh tonnes by April 2026, while procurement requirements could rise to 300–350 lakh tonnes. At the same time, private warehouses already hold around 22–25 lakh tonnes of wheat, significantly higher than last year.
★ With ample availability and subdued demand, mills are not aggressively buying new arrivals. Weak demand under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) auctions further reflects surplus supplies. Unless wheat or wheat product exports are allowed in time, market pressure is likely to persist, keeping prices under stress in the 2025–26 season.