Now the arrival of La Nina weather cycle is expected in October

25-Jul-2024 12:56 PM

Mumbai. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABS) had earlier predicted the arrival of La Nina weather cycle by September but now it has predicted its arrival in October.

Actually, the rate of cooling of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean has slowed down due to which La Nina is being formed at a slow pace. On the other hand, the dipole of the Indian Ocean is still neutral.

At present, the weather condition is neutral. El Nino ceased to exist in May-June while La Nina is likely to form after September.

As a result, neither of the two weather cycles will affect the South-West monsoon in India. Because its duration is of four months from June to September. Generally, La Nina weather cycle is considered favorable to the South-West monsoon.

If it arrives in October, then the intensity and mobility of the North-East monsoon may increase due to which good rainfall will be expected in different parts of the country during the winter season i.e. Rabi season. 

According to the report of the Australian Meteorological Department (ABM), after the effect of El Nino ended in June, the sea surface started cooling but its speed is seen to be very slow. Unless this cooling reaches the expected high level, it is difficult for La Nina to form.

Even if it forms, its effect will be ineffective. La Nina activity is now being predicted to increase in the Southern Hemisphere during spring, while in the Northern Hemisphere and especially in Asia, this weather cycle can remain active and dynamic during winter.

It is worth noting that spring in the Southern Hemisphere begins from 22 September and continues till 22 December. 

According to the ABM report, 4 out of 7 climate models are indicating the fact that the sea surface temperature (SST) may take two more months to reach the base point of (-) 0.8 degree Celsius for the formation of the La Nina weather cycle. In this way, its cooling will reach this level only by October.