Rainfall Forecast to be Below Normal Average During Monsoon Season

08-Apr-2026 06:37 PM

Mumbai: A private weather forecasting agency has projected a 94 percent probability of rainfall relative to the Long Period Average (LPA) across the country during the Southwest Monsoon season (June–September) of 2026.

It is noteworthy that the monsoon is feared to be under the threat of the El Niño weather cycle this time around, which could adversely impact rainfall levels. Reduced rainfall could, in turn, affect the Kharif crops.

According to the weather agency, rainfall in June is likely to be normal; however, subsequently—due to the influence of El Niño—the monsoon is expected to weaken, and its intensity may remain subdued from July through September.

It is pertinent to note that, traditionally, the country receives its highest volume of rainfall and witnesses the maximum sowing of Kharif crops during the months of July and August.

The agency has estimated a total rainfall of 817 mm across the country during the June–September 2026 period, which constitutes 94 percent of the normal average of 868.6 mm. Rainfall levels falling below 96 percent are classified as "below normal average."

The La Niña weather cycle has concluded, and the onset of El Niño is anticipated in July or August. While the government currently holds adequate stocks of food grains, a potential shortage of pulses and oilseeds cannot be ruled out.