Record Wheat Production Expected to Pressure Market

19-Dec-2025 11:38 AM

New Delhi. With a significant increase in sowing area and the prospect of improved yields due to favorable weather conditions, domestic wheat production during the current Rabi season of 2025-26 is projected to increase by at least 5 million tonnes compared to the 2024-25 season, reaching an all-time high.

This could keep prices under pressure next year as well. Some analysts believe that improved availability in the domestic market could push wheat prices below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), forcing the government to procure a large quantity for the central pool. If conditions remain favorable, the government may even consider allowing wheat exports.

According to official sources, the country recorded a record wheat production of approximately 117.5 million tonnes during the 2024-25 Rabi season, which is expected to surge to over 122 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season.

This significant increase in production comes at a time when millers, processors, traders, and stockists, as well as the Food Corporation of India (FCI), already have sufficient wheat stocks, forcing the FCI to suspend sales of this crucial food grain under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). In this situation, procuring the record production next year will be challenging.

According to analysts, a strong influx of new wheat supplies will begin in March-April 2026, and with limited demand from millers and stockists, prices could soften.

The government will have a carryover stock of approximately 20 million tonnes of wheat and can procure at least 30 million tonnes of new stock.

The procurement could even exceed this amount. Despite this, ample stocks of wheat will likely be available for sale in wholesale markets.