Risk to Rabi Crops from February Weather Conditions

02-Feb-2026 11:17 AM

New Delhi: Although the cold weather in December and January, along with recent rainfall in some states, has generally kept rabi crops in normal and satisfactory condition, the forecast issued by the Meteorological Department for February 2026 indicates a potential risk to crops. According to the department, temperatures during the current month are likely to remain above the normal average, while rainfall is expected to be comparatively low.

The February–March period is very crucial for rabi crops—especially wheat, barley, chickpea (gram), lentil, mustard, and groundnut—because flowering and grain formation take place during this time.

According to the Director General of the Meteorological Department, total rainfall across the country during February is likely to be around 81 percent of the long-term average. January has already recorded below-normal rainfall. As per the department, except for Rajasthan, most other states in northwestern India may receive less rainfall and experience higher temperatures in February. Although state-wise temperature projections have not yet been released, experts believe that if temperatures rise beyond a certain threshold, wheat yields in particular could be adversely affected, as wheat is the most important foodgrain of the rabi season.

In February, minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal in most parts of the country, except for some regions of southern India. Maximum temperatures may remain normal in central India but are likely to be higher than average in other regions. Meanwhile, limited arrivals of the new mustard and chickpea crops have begun.