Russian wheat exports likely to decline due to low production

26-Oct-2024 01:12 PM

Moscow. Due to unfavorable weather conditions in major producing areas, wheat production in Russia is likely to fall to 815 lakh tonnes during the current year, while next year it is estimated to fall further to 801 lakh tonnes, which is 80 lakh tonnes less than the five-year average production of 881 lakh tonnes.

As a result, the exportable surplus stock of wheat there will decrease and shipments may decrease. Russia is the world's leading exporter and third largest producer of wheat.

According to a leading analyst firm, the total wheat sowing area in Russia during the 2024-25 season is likely to be around 700 lakh acres, which is almost equal to the 2023-24 season.

Under this, the area of ​​winter wheat is expected to decrease and the area of ​​spring wheat is expected to increase.

In fact, the weather remains dry in the major producing areas of the country and due to lack of good rains for a long time, the sowing of winter wheat is likely to be affected.

Due to adverse weather, wheat crops in many regions may enter the worst condition during the winter season. Due to this, the yield rate of winter wheat there is likely to be below the normal average in the year 2025.

The analyst firm has estimated the yield rate of this wheat to be 51 bushels per acre next year, which is the lowest since the year 2019.

Wheat exports from Russia are likely to fall below 400 lakh tonnes during the 2025-26 marketing season (July-June), which is much less than the estimated export of 459 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season. Similarly, wheat production in Ukraine is also estimated to decline from 218 lakh tonnes to 211 lakh tonnes.