Russian wheat production and export likely to decline next season

28-Oct-2024 09:01 PM

Moscow. Due to the lack of good rains for a long time and dry weather in the major wheat producing areas of Russia, farmers are likely to face difficulty in sowing winter crops, while the crop will enter the winter season in a weak condition.

According to a leading analyst firm, the weather in Russia was not favorable even during the current season of 2024-25, due to which wheat production declined to 815 lakh tonnes, while in the season 2025-26 it is estimated to fall further to 801 lakh tonnes, which will be 80 lakh tonnes less than the five-year average production of 881 lakh tonnes.

Similarly, during the current marketing season, a little more than 450 lakh tonnes of wheat is expected to be exported from Russia, while in the next season its quantity is likely to fall to below 400 lakh tonnes.

Although the total wheat sown area in Russia is expected to remain around last year's 700 lakh acres, under which the area of ​​winter wheat is expected to decrease and the area of ​​spring wheat is expected to increase,

but the real problem is the decline in the yield rate of winter wheat. Its average yield rate is expected to fall to 51 bushels per acre, which is the lowest level since 2019.

In Russia's neighboring country - Ukraine, wheat production is also expected to fall from 218 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season to 211 lakh tonnes in 2025-26, which will be much less than the five-year average production of 242 lakh tonnes.

This may reduce the global supply of wheat next year as the weather is not completely favorable in the US, Canada and the European Union.