Small cardamom prices expected to remain high and strong in the January-March quarter

12-Nov-2024 11:24 AM

The price of small cardamom is expected to remain strong and high in the January-March quarter, driven by a combination of factors, particularly a significant production decline in Guatemala, the world's leading cardamom exporter.

According to estimates, Guatemala's production of small cardamom is expected to drop by 44 percent in the 2024-25 season compared to the previous year.

This decrease is attributed to damage caused by thrips pest infestations and natural disasters, with an overall loss of 34 percent of the crop.

As a result of this shortfall, Indian exporters are optimistic about increasing their share of exports, particularly to the Gulf countries before Ramadan in early 2025.

This comes as producers in Guatemala are facing challenges, including premature harvesting due to price incentives, leading to lower-quality cardamom with reduced weight.

Despite facing its own production challenges, India is expected to benefit from this global supply gap. Experts predict a similar production decline in India (around 40-50 percent), but the quality of Indian cardamom remains strong.

Additionally, with Guatemala’s cardamom commanding a premium price (around 30 percent higher than Indian cardamom), Indian exporters are poised to gain an advantage in the global market, especially as old stock in India is running out and new supplies are limited.

This situation sets the stage for higher prices and potentially increased demand, particularly ahead of the Ramadan season.